The global long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) forecasts passenger EV adoption out to 2040 and the impact that electrification will have on automotive and power markets, as well as on fossil fuel displacement and demand for key materials. The EVO 2017 report updates the assessment of future lithium-ion battery prices and how this will affect the economics of different vehicle segments. It also looks at important upcoming EV models, and analyses the impact of car sharing, ride hailing and autonomous driving.
The main points of the outlook are the following:
- By 2040, 54 percent of new car sales and 33 percent of the global car fleet will be electric.
- EVs will become competitive to internal combustion engine vehicles without any subsidies from 2025 on.
- The demand for lithium-ion battery demand will increase tremendously (over 60 times between 2016 and 2030) as well as the electricity consumption from EVs (300-fold until 2040, leading to a share of 5 percent of total global power demand in 2040). This will require a better electricity demand-management.
- The provision of an adequate charging infrastructure remains challenging.
An executive summary of the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 is available for download.