Pre COP: Developed countries put forth climate finance roadmap

The two-days Pre-COP Ministerial Meeting closed on Wednesday (Oct. 20) in Marrakech with representatives from over 70 countries. The meeting finalized the preparations for the incoming Conference of the Parties (COP22), which will start on Nov. 7. It also encompassed arrangements for the first meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, as the thresholds for entry into force were reached recently.

Earlier on Monday, Oct. 17, also the Pre-COP Civil Society Dialogue took place, for civil society to share views and recommendations on COP22 with the Moroccan organizers. The Moroccan Presidency also plans a special focus on the contributions of civil society at COP22.

At COP22, discussions will mainly circle around means of implementation and the elaboration of details to make the Paris Agreement operative. In the foreground capacity-building and climate finance will be under the spotlight. On climate finance, developed countries presented a roadmap at the Pre COP of how to achieve the target to provide USD 100 billion annually by 2020. The accompanying decisions of the COP in Paris last year had urged developed countries to provide such a roadmap.

According to projections of the OECD, developed countries’ public climate finance in 2020 will reach about USD 67 billion. This public finance encompasses both bilateral funds as well as multilateral finance for example from the multilateral development banks. Based on the past ratio between public finance and mobilized private finance for climate actions, a total amount of USD 93 billion is forecasted (see yellow values in the table taken from the OECD report). As a comparison, aggregate levels of support were estimated at USD 62 billion in 2014.

roadmap_pic

However, these numbers should not be taken for granted as they are linked to uncertainties, as emphasised in the roadmap. The final numbers depend on the actual provision of developed countries as well as on the availability of projects and the demand in developing countries. Nevertheless, the estimations should be considered as “conservative”.

The roadmap predicts, moreover, a doubling of adaptation finance. However, in the OECD projections the share of adaptation finance remains at less than 25 percent – while the Paris Agreement says that the “resources should aim to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation” (Article 9.4). Thus, the roadmap recognises that “increased efforts on finance for adaptation are necessary”.

How this might be achieved and its potential consequences – as adaptation finance mostly comes from public sources and shows only low degrees in mobilization of private finance – might be a controversial point at the forthcoming COP22.

 

(Image: Towards the Atlas Mountains from Medina, Marrakech. Photo Credit: J Mark Dodds, Flickr)